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Par & ReserveStablecoin Risk Report

Methodology · version 0.1.0-draft

How Risk Assessment Scores and Assessment Grades are built

A transparent, versioned framework. Each covered stablecoin receives a risk score from 0 to 100, built from six weighted dimension subscores. Higher scores indicate lower assessed risk.

Risk Assessment Score and Assessment Grade

The Risk Assessment Score (0–100) is the weighted sum of six dimension subscores; higher scores indicate lower assessed risk. Each score maps to an Assessment Grade from A to F using the published ranges below. Scores and grades are our opinions about relative risk, formed by applying this methodology to the information available on the stated as-of date. They are not credit ratings, statements of fact, predictions or recommendations, and no grade means an asset is free of risk.

Assessment Grade definitions
GradeScore rangeDefinition
A90–100Lowest relative risk under our methodology
B80–89.9Low relative risk
C70–79.9Moderate relative risk
D60–69.9Elevated relative risk
F0–59.9High relative risk
NR—Not Assessed: insufficient information, conflict, or under review

Hard-stop caps

Some conditions cap the score regardless of other dimensions:

Hard-stop caps
ConditionMaximum score
Redemption suspension > 72h ongoing or within last 30 days59
Critical unresolved exploit or unbacked mint59
Latest independent report shows reserves < 100% of tokens69
Latest independent report shows reserves < 97% of tokens49
Daily close outside $0.97-$1.03 on >= 2 consecutive days in last 90 days69
Latest price below $0.9549
No independent reserve report dated within last 120 days69
Endogenous / algorithmic backing > 25% of supply59
Regulator-ordered cessation of issuance, or active enforcement alleging reserve misrepresentation79
Issuer sanctioned, or unresolved criminal charges against issuer59
Reserve composition not disclosed at least at category level69

Six dimensions

The full methodology is public. Asset-level subscores, evidence and analysis are available to subscribers. Weights reflect the channels through which a stablecoin has historically failed to hold value or to be redeemable: reserve shortfalls, liquidity runs and peg breaks carry the most weight, with regulatory, operational and concentration risks as amplifiers.

Peg stability

20% weight

How closely the token has held its $1.00 reference: depth and duration of deviations, recovery behavior, and performance in stress periods.

Indicators

Peg stability indicators and weights within the dimension
IndicatorWeight in dimension
Max absolute deviation from $1, trailing 365d (max of daily closes 365d and hourly 90d)30%
Share of days with |deviation| > 50bp, trailing 365d20%
Std. dev. of hourly deviation, trailing 30d15%
Current absolute deviation (latest hourly)10%
Worst daily deviation in available history, time-decayed (half-life 2y)25%

Reserve quality

25% weight

Composition, collateralization, custody and legal segregation of reserve assets, and the type, provider and recency of independent reserve assurance.

Indicators

Reserve quality indicators and weights within the dimension
IndicatorWeight in dimension
Share of reserves in cash at regulated institutions, T-bills <=93d, overnight Treasury repo, government MMFs30%
Reserve assets / tokens outstanding (latest independent report)15%
Type and provider of independent reserve assurance20%
Days from latest independent reserve report date to as-of date15%
Legal segregation / bankruptcy remoteness of reserves10%
Granularity of reserve disclosure10%

Liquidity

20% weight

Primary redemption access at par (who can redeem, minimums, fees, timing) and secondary-market depth and breadth.

Indicators

Liquidity indicators and weights within the dimension
IndicatorWeight in dimension
Primary redemption access at par35%
Sum of sell-side order-book depth within 2% across top-100 venues/pairs25%
24h volume / market cap10%
Market capitalization15%
Distinct venues with > $100k 24h volume (top-100 tickers)15%

Regulatory

15% weight

Issuer licensing and supervision, status under the GENIUS Act framework, enforcement history and the legal clarity of holder claims.

Indicators

Regulatory indicators and weights within the dimension
IndicatorWeight in dimension
Prudential supervision of the issuing legal entity40%
GENIUS Act pathway as of the Jan 18, 2027 effective date30%
Enforcement / litigation history (5y window, linear decay)20%
Legal clarity of holder redemption claim10%

Operational

10% weight

Smart-contract and key-management controls, freeze and upgrade powers, incident history and the resilience of critical service providers.

Indicators

Operational indicators and weights within the dimension
IndicatorWeight in dimension
Token/issuer incidents in trailing 36 months35%
Public smart-contract audit reports located15%
Disclosure of mint/upgrade/admin key controls15%
Years since token launch15%
Issuer / parent operational resilience (public cyber or outage incidents)20%

Concentration

10% weight

Concentration of holders, custodians, banking partners, chains and venues, and dependence on any single counterparty.

Indicators

Concentration indicators and weights within the dimension
IndicatorWeight in dimension
Largest single venue share of 24h volume (top-100 tickers)35%
Largest deposit exposure at a single non-systemically-important bank, % of reserves35%
Share of backing in other stablecoins, crypto assets, issuer-ecosystem tokens or other volatile assets30%

Confidence and coverage

Coverage is the share of a dimension's indicators for which current, sourced data was available at the as-of date. Confidence (high, medium or low) is the analyst's judgement of how reliable the inputs are, considering source quality, recency and consistency. Low confidence or coverage is shown next to every score so readers can see where the evidence is thin. Assets without enough data to assess are designated NR (Not Assessed) and tracked qualitatively.

  • Missing submetrics are scored 0 (highest risk) in the reported score. An upper-bound score (missing = 100) is also published so readers see the effect of evidence gaps.
  • A submetric older than its max_age_days is capped at 50 and flagged stale.
  • If an analyst searched for evidence and confirmed it is not publicly available, the submetric is scored using the explicit 'absent' category (e.g., none_found, undisclosed) and counts as observed.

Process and governance

  • Monthly cadence. Data are collected to a fixed as-of date (the last day of the prior month) and published early in the month.
  • Event-driven updates. A material event (a significant depeg, reserve or redemption change, enforcement action, or major incident) triggers an interim update.
  • Human sign-off. Automated collection and analysis are reviewed, and every issue is signed off by a named analyst before publication.
  • Versioning. The methodology is versioned. Changes to weights or definitions are announced in advance and noted in the issue.
  • Back-testing. The framework is tested against historical events such as the March 2023 USDC depeg and the 2022 collapse of UST. Back-test results will be published with methodology version 1.0.
  • Conflicts. Commercial relationships with any covered issuer are disclosed, and conflicted analysts recuse themselves.

Data sources

Issuer attestations, audits and disclosures; redemption terms; regulatory filings, orders and the Federal Register; market data on prices and order-book depth; on-chain data on supply and holder concentration; and public third-party assessments, cited where used. Every figure in an issue links to its source with the time it was retrieved.

Limitations

  • Scores are point-in-time assessments based on information available at the as-of date and can change without notice.
  • Issuer disclosures and third-party data are relied on and are not independently audited by the publisher.
  • A Risk Assessment Score is an opinion, not a credit rating. It does not predict a depeg and is not a recommendation to hold, buy, sell or use any asset.
  • Readers remain responsible for their own research and decisions; institutions remain responsible for their own due diligence and regulatory obligations.